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CME FedWatch Tool

Market-implied probabilities for Federal Reserve rates

Open site
Category
Investing Tools
Website
cmegroup.com
Checked
2026-09-24

CME FedWatch uses federal funds futures prices to show target-rate probabilities for FOMC meetings and changes in market expectations.

About

CME FedWatch derives market-implied probabilities of target-rate outcomes from 30-Day Federal Funds futures pricing. The official guide explains how to select a meeting and compare current probabilities with readings from a day, week or month earlier.

The tool also provides historical probabilities, data downloads and Federal Reserve dot-plot views. Futures-implied probabilities and FOMC member projections have distinct sources and meanings; check dates and methodology alongside policy statements.

Features

  • Target-rate probabilities by FOMC meeting
  • Current and earlier probability comparisons
  • Historical probabilities and downloads
  • Federal Reserve dot plots and a user guide

Use cases

  • Track rate expectations for upcoming meetings
  • Compare policy expectations before and after economic events

Strengths

  • The official guide explains data sources and usage
  • Supports historical comparisons for the same meeting

Limitations

  • Probabilities depend on futures prices and calculation assumptions
  • The embedded tool must load successfully; check the data timestamp

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